Junior Dev

Chill Tech

This is because AI is currently “only” as good as a very good, tireless, junior developer. I can get someone/something like that to do whatever I want because I have an extensive technical background and have done near-dev work my entire life starting from when I was five years old.

Someone without that experience like Katie is not qualified to tell a junior dev (the AI) what to do or how to do it, so their efforts will fail. AI and junior devs currently share a lot. For instance:

1) A junior dev/AI has no idea why it’s doing anything, even if you explain it it. Can write good code but has no design sense or architectural vision.

2) A junior dev/AI will make whatever changes they are told, but will not be able to contextualize them in any real way.

3) A junior dev/AI will not set up its dev environment competently without extensive assistance.

4) A junior dev/AI will not understand what to test or why, especially in the context of the larger user experience.

5) A junior dev/AI will have no idea about security, and not understand it it any real way even with extensive explanation and guidance.

I am not saying that AI is not useful. What I am saying is that AI is only as good as a talented but green junior developer with 1-2 years of experience. That’s still far, far superior to nothing.

So that means that someone like Katie is not yet able to steer it correctly to build anything good or useful.

Crowbarred

Chill Evil

This is a good example of a person who would have more empathy for Decarlos Brown.

And I tell you something, if some mook shows up breaking up into my house with a crowbar, they are ending up as a corpse with crowbar indentations in their skull. Anything else is unacceptable.

Averse

Chill Evil

I expect a diaspora of white non-Muslim Europeans to places like the US and perhaps Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and other locales that resist invasion and destruction.

It will not be great, but might overall be good for the US if we can also resist destructive immigration from cultures averse to Western values.

Droning Onward

Chill Prediction, War

I was talking about this with a friend and my partner recently. A war with the US involved would not look like this. Drones are not omnipotent nor are they immune from physical reality. Extensive use of drone warfare to the level of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is an artifact of limited personnel, poorly-developed anti-drone defenses (including EW) and lack of funding for superior non-drone resources.

That is, drones are in use so heavily there because it is the best of a lot of bad options. Other players like the United States and China have superior options so any war with major well-resourced nations would not at all look like the Russia-Ukraine War. People really do have trouble contextualizing events and the vicissitudes of fate and circumstance and don’t seem to realize that what’s occurring in Ukraine will not be how war would look everywhere for every combatant.

Note that I am not saying that drones would not be used in, for example, a US-China war. They absolutely would, and heavily. They are now an unavoidable feature of modern warfare. However, the US already has better anti-drone defenses than Ukraine is ever to likely lay hands on. Those are also improving all the time.

Another point: Drones are very large targets on radar, very slow1, and not that powerful. In other words, they are quite easy to shoot down with the appropriate technology. A drone is just a cheap, slow missile, and the US is actually quite good at dealing with those.

Drones appear all-powerful because Russia and Ukraine use them by necessity and have poor counter-drone defenses. That will not be true of every conflict and is very specific to the circumstances of a single war.

  1. By military standards.

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