Democracy Needs the Loser. The observance of defeat, especially in an election, is often all that keeps a state from tipping into violence.

I say 75% chance of a coup attempt in 2024/2025, and 30% chance of a successful coup by the fascist Republicans¹ (not all the Republicans are fascist, but nearly all the fascists are Republicans).

It’ll be better-organized and run than the pitiful January 6 effort. I hope there are some back-end preparations brewing. I don’t expect civil war or anything like that, but perhaps some scattered violence.

1. Assuming Kamala wins.