It’s striking how dense more-cerebral people like Kelsey can be sometimes. Most people are not statisticians and have no coherent way of thinking about polls or how the numbers are determined post-polling. Also, correctly, the hoi polloi recognize that no claim like this is made without a political dimension. Therefore depsite being statistically nearly-indistinguishable, Trump at 51% vs. Harris at 51% is also a potentially political claim about the future.

Regular people recognize this. People like Kelsey struggle with it as they tell us that philosophy is irrelevant while bombarding us with spreadsheets and PowerPoint slides.