CSN

I’ve also noticed that people have enormous difficulty understanding COL variance. It’s a bit mystifying. Of course you’re doing fine on your $60K a year in Crotch Shot, Nebraska. Houses are nearly free, hamburgers grow out of the dirt, and you can trade some empty Coke bottles for land. To show that I’m only exaggerating a little, here is a dead average house in York, NE. It’s $200K. In San Jose, that house would be $2 million. And if you don’t mind really living in the sticks (to most people in Silicon Valley, York would be the sticks) you can find a quite nice-looking place in Nebraska on nearly a third of an acre for $130K. Or you could buy 77 acres of land with a house and two outbuildings in Nebraska for $1.3 million. How much you reckon that’d set you back in San Jose?

There will be not-as-large but still quite notable variance in food pricing, gas costs, taxes, etc., between somewhere like York and San Jose. And people just have loads of trouble understanding anything about this.

Humans are more cognitively limited in the general case than we like to admit.

Margin

This is only up to the end of 2017. We are told this purchase of single-family homes has no effect because the percentage is so small compared to the entire market. However, that’s because those claiming that do not understand (or in some cases, do understand, but do not want us to) how house prices work. In short, homes are priced at the margin. Therefore, with a smart purchasing strategy, the market can be influenced fairly easily. This is exactly what is being done.

OER

Owner’s Equivalent Rent for measuring housing inflation is the clowniest, most useless way of computing that in the universe. Owners mostly have no goddamn idea how much it’d cost to rent their own place. I bet if you asked (and the gummint does) the owner and compared that to the actual rent they could get those owners would be off by 40%+.

Maybe the various levels and layers of wrongness balance out. But I doubt it. And even if so, why should we depend on that? Just a terrible, terrible metric.

Renm

Noah is correct. The “China cycle” was widely denied because believing it was real was associated with racism, partly due a very successful Chinese propaganda operation focused on PMC liberals that equated believing in the cycle with such. That influence operation worked and was fairly brilliantly done by the CCP in that it got a lot of bang for the buck renminbi.

Those days are mostly over now, so you no longer roundly get accused of racism when the Chinese do something harmful or at least not very nice and get called out on it.

Const

Though they don’t usually complain about this specifically, the one bit of NIMBY griping I agree with is construction noise. It is terrible, long-lasting, and hugely disruptive. Especially since I sleep at odd hours, it is particularly disturbing to me and my oddball non-schedule.

There is not likely to be any nearby construction in the neighborhood where we bought anytime soon but I’d sure dread it if that ever came to pass. No, I would not oppose it, but if it were something that was going to last years as much construction does I’d strongly consider just moving.

Toil

It is worrying that countries like Germany, Canada and the UK have thrown their whole economies in the toilet and don’t seem inclined to do much about it. We were strongly considering immigrating to Canada, but with their downward trajectory it’s not even a real option any longer.

The US at least is on some sort of track to try to correct the worst of this tendency to self-destruction. But if we could just defeat rampant NIMBYism, we could do a whole lot better.

Everybody Knows

How NAFTA Broke American Politics. Since its passage in 1993, the trade agreement has played an outsize role in presidential elections โ€” which now often hinge on the three Rust Belt states it helped to hollow out.

“Hollow out” is a good way to put it. Economists tell us that NAFTA was a net benefit to everyone. They have pretty little charts and graphs to “prove” it. However, those do not take into account much of the actual economic effects, the political follow-on impacts, the foreign policy implications, international competitiveness effects, or the necessity of domestic production and supply chains in the case of war.

Economics, therefore, captures maybe 10-20% of what’s important about trade agreements like NAFTA while lying about it in the name of the plutocrats the entire time. Good work.

Current

My assessment is that Harris will be slightly better than Biden for Ukraine, while Trump will be substantially worse. And one big reason is that the Trump campaign is being indirectly bankrolled and assisted by Russian money and propaganda, and to a lesser extent by the Chinese as well.

Trump is loyal to one thing, and that is cold hard currency. He’ll never quite be Putin’s lapdog, but he’ll be tame enough as long as the money spigot keeps flowing. And that’ll mean bad things for Ukraine.

Prod Allo

No, this is not correct. There is very much a tradeoff, definitionally. “Allocative efficiency” refers to producing goods and services that meet consumer demand, e.g. producing the colors of cars that people want to buy. It is future-oriented, generally. However, Pareto efficiency (rather, optimality) is where a person cannot be made better off without making someone else worse off. The two concepts are related (sometimes) but not the same thing at all. To expand that thought a bit, Pareto efficiency is about finding the correct balance between allocative and productive efficiency, not just concentrating on allocative efficiency alone1.

The person who wrote that is confused and should read their textbooks again, but more closely this time.

  1. It is trivial to run a thought experiment where one could crash the entire economy by concentrating on allocative efficiency exclusively. Not very Pareto optimal then, really.