Prediction

Certainly

Chill Political Economy, Politics, Prediction

FYI an uncertain economy is even worse for investment and future growth than a merely bad economy.

A bad economy is predictable. Uncertainty, however, is economic death. And Trump is overloading us with uncertainty. In fact, providing nothing but. This will result in very bad things. Already is, really, but unless an actual nuclear attack or tsunami hits economic headwinds generally take 6-9 months to have much noticeable effect.

We’re in the winds now. Storm is coming; depression is on the way. Just give it time.

Future Lat

Chill Prediction

I have a dark horse candidate: Latin America, and not just for bio stuff, but for everything.

Eventually, as the EU becomes Islamicized and the US becomes an authoritarian Christian dominionist horror show, the smart people from the EU, the US, Russia, China and even India will converge on Latin America as it gets its shit together. Buenos Aires will be the new Silicon Valley; something close to Schengen for LATAM will be enacted about when research universities there supplant America’s as they embrace tech the US is now trashing (mRNA and other biosciences, renewable power, and so many more).

By 2100, Latin America will be the place to be. The US and China will be sad also-rans and the EU will be under a new caliphate.

Future Decline

Chill Evil, Political Economy, Prediction

US economy shrinks in first quarter of Trump 2.0 amid sweeping tariffs.

This is the beginning of the beginning of the depression that is on the way. This quarter of economic decline didn’t occur because of tariffs, but rather due to business uncertainty. That is actually worse than tariffs and as long as Trump makes random unaccountable decisions the economy will only get worse.

Too much is up in the air at the moment for more substantive claims, but we are definitely going to be in a depression for a while. The best case scenario is 2-3 years. I give this a 30% chance. The most likely case is 5-8 years of depression followed by low growth. I give this one a 60% chance. And the apocalyptic case is complete destruction of the economy with further Trump-like figures succeeding him. This would perpetuate depression conditions (even if there is some intermittent growth occurring due to how great was the decline) for 20+ years. This of course has a 10% chance of happening.

We are living in terrible times. They’re already here. Most people just don’t know it yet because they can’t see that the plane has already lost all power and the mountains loom in the distance.

Not So Lit

Chill Prediction

Short Video Isn’t Just Rotting Our Brains. It’s Rewiring Them. Short-form video is the logical outgrowth of an increasingly oral culture.

An increasingly terrible culture. I think Neal Stephenson was right — in the future, the majority of people will be illiterate again. We’ll regress to the long-term mean of about a 10-20% literacy rate and everyone else will use glyphs/emojis and communicate with video only.

We’re already on that path and accelerating down the hill; little to nothing will stop it now.

The Pressure

Chill Clowns, Prediction

I expect the US to be firmly in depression by early- to mid-2026. After that, it’s a bit more nebulous but if Trump is still healthy I’d expect a coup attempt in 2028. It’ll probably succeed. That means no getting out of the depression for a long while.

This is now all just rampant speculation, but my guess is that since Trump really has no successor to speak of and likely never will, that we emerge from depression conditions around 2032 when semi-normal elections resume. This will occur of course because Trump is not in office for whatever reason.

I hope this catastrophe was all worth defeating woke? Sure doesn’t seem like it to me. But I hope it does as you and your family are starving with no job and no future.

Ress

Chill Political Economy, Prediction

I’m glad I was old enough to talk to my great-grandmother on what living through the Great Depression was like. She died in 1986 and was born between 1900-1903 (can’t remember for sure).

My grandparents recalled the tail end of it, but my great-gran remembered the whole thing as she was in her twenties when it began. I was pretty young when we discussed it, but I do have a clear memory of her saying that her family went from living in a three-bedroom house to being forced to downgrade to what was basically a converted shed. She also said that food became unaffordable and for several years they were reduced to eating one small meal a day.

A lot of you aren’t going to need Ozempic anymore with what’s on the way. And will be doing a reprise of the life of my great-gran. Hope you like your converted sheds or refrigerator boxes by the side of the road, because to be perfectly frank that’s where many of you reading this will end up in the next few years.

Get ready now to avoid that fate later.

Literate Rate Iterate

Chill Annoying, Prediction

I wish there were a way to measure “practical literacy” vs. “can recognize some words and sound them out.”

That said, let’s talk about what’s pinging around in my brain. Literacy rates worldwide went from about 12% in the early 1800s to about 88% in 2016.

I suspect that 2016 number is about the peak of what I deemed above to be “practical literacy.” Already, large portions — perhaps even the majority — of Gen Z is not even close to being literate in any real sense. This will probably only get worse as TikTok and similar scourges take over the collective culture. Literacy is now passé in the literal French verb sense — as in “past.” It’s no longer required nor desired for and by the majority of the population.

This ramifications of this change will be just as large an alteration of society as widespread literacy was. And I do not have any idea how it will play out, but that future is well on the way whether we like it or not. In most important aspects, it’s already here.