Prediction

Say It Again

Chill Prediction, War

I’ve been watching a lot of combat footage lately to discern how our next wars are going to play out. The state of drone warfare is changing and advancing all the time. All the footage, though, is grim. I’m not going to link to these as civilized people1 shouldn’t watch such things, but there are numerous videos of a Russian soldier surviving one drone attack only for another drone and then another to come finish him off.

Supposedly, the Ukrainians now have semi-autonomous AI-powered drone picket lines. From the evidence I’ve seen, I believe it; even the indirect evidence is that they would’ve been overwhelmed now by Russian advances without this tech.

Does anyone realize that the Terminator franchise was a warning, not something to go ahead and create? Guess we’re fatally attracted to the torment nexus. The US and every other country is at least 10 years behind where the Ukrainians are with drone tech. We have to do something about that as we’re likely to be fighting in Europe and the South China Sea soon enough.

  1. Never been civilized.

Six Flags

Chill Prediction

Anyone else suspect the job market is about to get a lot worse?

Oh it is. I’d expect 9-10% unemployment this time next year. After that, likely worse though it’s too far out to say much about it either way.

And then just wait till China attacks Taiwan. That’ll make the bad times seem good. We’re back in history again and it’s gonna be quite the ride, though not one you can just get off of like at Six Flags. We’re strapped in until the whole things flies off the rails.

Press

Chill Clowns, Prediction

I’d put the odds of a recession at 90%1, the odds of a Great Recession at 65%, and the odds of a depression similar to the 1930s at 45%.

We are fucking up big time.

  1. The highest I go for anything systemic.

Not So Peaceful

Chill Prediction, War

If Putin gets a favorable peace deal, Russia will be rolling into Berlin in 2030. Anyone with a clue knows that is the goal.

Genie-al

Chill Prediction, Tech

The next phase of putting the information genie back in the bottle is increasing (US) state-level tech regulation that de facto bans services like Mastodon and anything else similar to it.

This will be done under the cover of protecting “privacy” and “for the children” but will really be for the purpose of making sure nothing that’s not large-scale and easily-controllable can exist.

It’s already starting. And many so-called liberals will be right on board with this.

Sold Out

Chill Prediction, War

Now that America is in the hands of enemies, those same enemies will have free rein: Invasion of Taiwan by China is likely in October of 2026 when the weather is favorable and Trump is at his weakest.

I suspect Europe will not organize itself to help Ukraine with needed materiel and thus it too will be defeated in 2026. After that, Russia will regroup for a few years and then invade the Baltics in 2030, then Poland and Germany in 2032.

Isn’t the future fun? Told you that you’d miss Pax Americana when it was gone. Those of you who survive it, that is.

Overground

Chill Politics, Prediction

Might be right, might be wrong — but we have heard this before. Read documents and commentary from the late 1960s and early 1970s. It was chaos. There were riots, the Weather Underground bombed the US Capitol building and people believed society was about to dissolve into anarchy and mass death.

But it didn’t. And that’s mostly forgotten now, even in some cases by people who lived through it.

My personal guess is that we experience a pretty bad WWIII against China, Russia and North Korea, the US pulls together and we and Europe emerge stronger with China diminished and reclusive once again.

But Trump is doing the US much damage that will not be easy to repair. I agree that it is not looking good.

The III

Chill Prediction, War

WWIII has already started. I mean, obviously. Well, if you have a brain attached.

Future historians will mark the date of its commencement as of February 20, 2014, the first Russian invasion of Ukraine. I’m guessing it’ll end somewhere around 2040, unless we nuke ourselves all to hell. Then it could be sooner.