There’s a 35% chance we’ll be fighting in Poland by 2032 and a 90% chance we’ll be doing the same in the South China Sea.
Prediction
Poll Stacks
The reality is that the most likely outcome is that election will be so close all the polls are and will be nearly worthless. The “experts” will lie about them obviously after the fact as is their wont of late, but that’s just background noise these days.
The inevitable coup has a 50/50 chance of success following that if Harris wins.
Deter
I very much hope we do not go to war with China, to be clear. It would be disastrous for both countries and for the world. We should do all that is reasonable to prevent this outcome that still protects our own valid interests while not leaving our allies to hang1. But part of that prevention is putting in place a strong deterrent
, i.e., a military with enough resources to plausibly fight and win a protracted war if needed. In the realpolitik of nations — which resemble corporations in their amorality — that ability to be a lethal snake in the grass is the only deterrent that matters. Therefore, at least in this case, being prepared for that war is an excellent way to prevent it ever occurring.
Harris seems to understand this, at least. It remains to be seen if she acts on her understanding if she wins and the inevitable coup is not successful. If there is a coup in 2024 or 2025 that ousts her and installs Trump, I’d expect the war with China to occur during the middle of his term as he’ll be even more weak and incompetent than his first already-dismal effort. And the nation will be in chaos. This will be all China needs to do what they are already planning to do. They absolutely will not ignore that opportunity. And no, we will not be able to avoid that war even with Trump at the helm, but what we will be is utterly unprepared to fight it.
One of the main reasons I support Harris is that attempting to forestall the war with China is something she’ll be better at in every way possible. And right now preventing that war while readying ourselves to fight it is the most important issue we face. It’s far more important than climate change, disease prevention, crime or anything else that most people seem obsessed with. But it’s been a long time since a war had any real effect on the US so people have forgotten.
There is no perfect candidate. There is no truly just war. But we are coming up on some pretty hard years ahead. We need to prepare for them, whatever they might bring. Trump will be completely incompetent at the project of averting war or prosecuting it in the highly-likely event Ares does point his blood-stained finger at us once again. This storm is coming whether we like it or not. The only thing to do now is get ready as best we can.
South China Throwdown
I now rate the chance of war with China by 2032 at 90%. How big a war? Pretty damn big. But I’m still thinking about that and how it’ll all play out. More to follow.
Coupcoup People
I say 75% chance of a coup attempt in 2024/2025, and 30% chance of a successful coup by the fascist Republicans1 (not all the Republicans are fascist, but nearly all the fascists are Republicans).
It’ll be better-organized and run than the pitiful January 6 effort. I hope there are some back-end preparations brewing. I don’t expect civil war or anything like that, but perhaps some scattered violence.
ERP DERP
When the war with China starts, expect weeks-long food system disruptions as a secondary effect of data centers containing ERP systems being bombed.
Plan accordingly.
Int Broke
When we go to war with China, expect the internet mostly to be broken for several years and for GPS to be largely unavailable. But at least we probably won’t starve (unless some nukes get used).
Tai When
Some free advice: When it looks like China is likely to attack or even blockade Taiwan, buy whatever computer or tech stuff you want immediately. And that does include these days cars. Because once that starts happening, anything tech-related or with a bunch of tech in it is, first, going to get very expensive and then it will be unavailable altogether for 3-10 years.
That “buy immediately” advice also includes items not made in or near Taiwan due to the cascade effect.
I will put a note on this blog when it’s time to start buying. Listen or not, I don’t care. But I will be right.
War Wolf
Regional war brewing in the Middle East, regional war in Ukraine and soon-to-be war in the South China Sea. We are entering the era of conflict once again. No matter what Pinker with his nonsense has claimed, what really occured since WWII is that we had a lull similar to the relative peace after 1815. (Shattered, of course, by WWI’s guns of August.)
The world is busily getting back on track for some major incidents of slaughter and suffering on a scale not seen since 1945. It’s pretty much baked in now. And just wait till the AMOC collapses and so does India. Dang, we ain’t seen nothin’ yet.