War

The III

Chill Prediction, War

WWIII has already started. I mean, obviously. Well, if you have a brain attached.

Future historians will mark the date of its commencement as of February 20, 2014, the first Russian invasion of Ukraine. I’m guessing it’ll end somewhere around 2040, unless we nuke ourselves all to hell. Then it could be sooner.

Lin

Chill Prediction, War

Indeed. What the russians heard loud and clear: I’m here today to directly and unambiguously express that you are free to invade anywhere in Europe at your own convenience and timetable.

[image or embed]

— Maria Popova 🇨🇦 (@popovaprof.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 4:03 PM

The Baltics, Poland and also likely Germany are totally fucked now. I’d guess Russia will push into Berlin sometime between 2030-2032.

TM Footage

Chill War, WTF

Dual POV footage of a Ukrainian FPV failing to detonate outside a Russian bunker, and a RU soldier who films the same unexploded FPV from inside. A Ukrainian heavy bomber drone is then sent in to drop an anti tank mine on the same bunker and unexploded FPV.

No gore or death in this one, but this war has just provided some insane footage.

FYI the Russians almost certainly evacced that bunker before the anti-tank mine hit it — that’s why the footage exists. There was probably a 20-45 minute delay before that TM-62 got dumped on it.

Wood You Believe

Chill War, WTF

For those not in the know, wooden armor does nearly nothing against any kind of munition that would threaten something like a tank. It’d be very slightly effective against the weakest drones (though posing a fire risk), do nearly nothing against anything greater than 7.62mm, and would be like air to anything beyond that. (There are some nuances here regarding HEAT rounds and shaped charges I’m not discussing.)

This is pointless and mostly dumb.

It’d take approximately 12 feet of wood (depending on type) to stop what three inches of modern alloy armor can keep from penetrating.

Crime Times

Chill Clowns, War

A lot of the people claiming actions in war are “war crimes” that are in no way war crimes comes from the belief that war should be noble and should look like this:

I blame war movies, mostly. The reality is that war is never noble. Never was, and never will be. It’s a horror from end to end and that horror lasts and lives not only through the conflict but for the entire remaining existence of anyone who experienced it.

That said, best is defeating your enemy without either of you having to fight at all. Next best is incinerating your enemy while they are sleeping in their barracks or camp. Or something similar.

And doing that is not a war crime. It’s what you — if you’re competent — should be aiming for as a commander. Your goal is to prevent your enemy from fighting and if you do have to fight, achieving a decisive and quick victory.

If I were charged with fighting a war, I’d do the things below with no compunction. And none of this are war crimes, you clowns:

1) Shooting retreating soldiers.

2) Shooting and destroying fleeing enemy aircraft or watercraft.

3) Dropping thermite on enemy targets.

4) Destroying enemy supplies.

5) Setting up an ambush and then eliminating the enemy with no possibility of resistance.

Not war crimes! That is just how you fight a war if you want to win.

World is full of doofuses.

Mater Real

Chill Clowns, War

Hargraves: I want you to think about who has the most macho army in the world—or at least the image of it. Russia, right? They pride themselves on this macho bullshit. But they invaded Ukraine, and guess what? Russia is losing 5-6 soldiers for every one Ukrainian… ego doesn’t mean anything.

[image or embed]

— Acyn (@acyn.bsky.social) January 16, 2025 at 12:15 PM

Effective intelligence, control, coordination and communication are the factors that matter. And having enough materiel of all sorts, too, of course. But even with all the materiel in the world, without those first four things I mentioned you’re gonna do nothing but lose.

As the Russians are discovering.

Done Dirty

Chill Evil, Prediction, War

We’ve really done Ukraine dirty. And by “we,” I mean the US, NATO and the EU. We allowed them to absorb all the Russian aggression and revanchism while providing just barely enough support to survive.

And we’ll pay for that. More specifically, the Baltics, Poland and Germany will. At least they’ll get it the worst.

Wait and see.

Dore

Chill War, WTF

Ian Welsh: This is what winning looks like! Total victory for my most-adored Putin!

Everyone else: What the actual goddamn fuck?

(Warning: people definitely do die in the above video. Which somehow fucktard Welsh will also see as a victory.)