History has returned, as it always does. Alas and such. But it was inevitable; human nature has not changed. And only the dead have seen the end of war, as George Santayana observed.
We needed new minds for new times. And we did not get and do not have those. So it’ll be like old times again soon.
In speech televised across Europe, Macron warns continent to prepare for war with Russia.
Macron knows what’s up. He realizes that a Germany overrun by Russia is also a threat to France, and that Germany being taken is an extremely likely outcome if Ukraine falls.
Is he the only one awake in Europe? We’ll see I guess.
China is probably set to invade Taiwan sometime in 2026. That will likely be what tips us and the world over into depression. Musk and Trump’s actions alone might be enough. But the Taiwan invasion will certainly seal the deal if Musk/Trump gangsterism by itself does not.
I’d expect a 1930s-like depression, but it certainly could get as bad as the Long Depression that began in 1873.
1) Americans need to get that if Putin wins in Ukraine with a peace deal that is good enough that it vindicates the invasion, World War 3 is far likelier.
2) Europeans need to get that the era of fantasy politics – being the “regulatory superpower”, giving up economic growth to…
— Sam Bowman (@s8mb) February 28, 2025
If Putin gets a favorable peace deal, Russia will be rolling into Berlin in 2030. Anyone with a clue knows that is the goal.
Now that America is in the hands of enemies, those same enemies will have free rein: Invasion of Taiwan by China is likely in October of 2026 when the weather is favorable and Trump is at his weakest.
I suspect Europe will not organize itself to help Ukraine with needed materiel and thus it too will be defeated in 2026. After that, Russia will regroup for a few years and then invade the Baltics in 2030, then Poland and Germany in 2032.
Isn’t the future fun? Told you that you’d miss Pax Americana when it was gone. Those of you who survive it, that is.
China won't be satisfied with Taiwan if they get it.
They'll keep going. https://t.co/wD4jhExUAF
— Noah Smith
(@Noahpinion) February 25, 2025
Oh, of course. They want Philippines and ideally, Japan. Among other countries and territories.
If dipshit-ass clowns like Ian Welsh thinks 200-400 Russians a day dying while gaining basically no ground is winning, I’d fucking hate to see what losing looks like.
Anyone who believes that Russia invaded Ukraine due to NATO is just spouting Russian propaganda. And sounding foolish the whole damn time.
Vladimir Putin gives us no reason to believe that he fears a NATO invasion. If Russian leaders feared such an eventuality, the last thing they would have done would have been to undertake a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as they did in 2022. That amounts to sacrificing most of their army inside a country that is not a NATO member. If Russians feared a NATO invasion, they would not have created a situation in which Finland and Sweden join NATO, which they have done.
Pro tip: If you want to understand global geopolitics, start with not being an unpaid Russian shill. That’s not enough of course, but it’s a good starting place.
Today is the third anniversary of Russia’s three-day Special Military Operation in Ukraine.
If that ain’t winning, I don’t know what is.
What’s the payload here? https://t.co/7buqgnnVl4
— David Hambling (@David_Hambling) February 22, 2025
Payload is probably a cardboard Russian seven-day MRE box with a tarp or something wrapped around it to weatherproof it. It’s the right size and shape and the logistics of getting those to the front line with ground vehicles now is nearly impossible with all the Ukrainian drones.
Yes. In the new world of conquest, any country that is menaced by a great-power neighbor and doesn't have nuclear weapons is just signing their own death warrant. https://t.co/6pwgGeqM52
— Noah Smith
Shit, I need some nukes too. Right to bear arms, yeah? 
The Economist: "In April 2022, following Russia’s retreat from the north of Ukraine, it controlled 19.6% of Ukrainian territory; its casualties (dead and wounded) were perhaps 20,000. Today Russia occupies 19.2% and its casualties are 800,000, reckon British sources." pic.twitter.com/h3hx04S7i4
— Richard Hanania (@RichardHanania) February 20, 2025
Ian Welsh: OMG WINNING SO HARD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111111
Everyone who is not a goddamn confirmed idiot: Wow, that’s a colossal waste of money and people to achieve nearly nothing.
Margo is right. Selling out Ukraine now means we’ll be fighting Russia in Germany in ~2030. That’s almost a guarantee. Poland and the Baltics will be done for as well.
Ukraine probably should’ve restarted their nuclear weapons program in 2014, after the first Russian invasion.