Least Bad

If I’d rebooted this blog 3-4 years ago, I would not even have had a “War” category (if it’d had categories then). Now it’s one I post in frequently.

And that’s because war is coming. It’s already here, really. We just don’t acknowledge it yet. Now’s the time to forestall it worsening or if those dogs must be fully unleashed, to make it the least bad possible war.

But mostly, we’re doing nothing. And that pains me.

Wave Byebye

I’m not bothered by that much, really, but it’s disturbing to see Russian troops passing the charred and dismembered bodies of their dead comrades, heading into another pointless, doomed meat wave assault where all or nearly all of them will be killed for absolutely nothing.

To Russia, those people aren’t worth even as much as a $500 drone. Something is deeply wrong in the Russian soul. Deeply, deeply wrong.

Knife

The free world teeters on the edge of a knife. If Trump is elected, there will be no liberal great powers left in the world.

I agree with Noah Smith here.

Although itโ€™s not possible to know for certain what the consequences of a second Trump presidency would be, itโ€™s very possible that it would result in the U.S. essentially surrendering its European allies to Russia and its Asian allies to China โ€” thus dramatically weakening Americaโ€™s own ability to resist those enemies in the future.

This is an extremely likely outcome of a Trump victory. And that, therefore, will make WWIII far more likely as well. Either that, or the below — followed by WWIII.

If the U.S. abandons resistance to China and Russia, it will go very badly for Americaโ€™s allies. Europe will probably fracture again, with some states (probably including Germany) falling all over themselves to appease the Russians. Russia will then become a sort of de facto hegemon in Europe. In Asia, China would probably conquer Taiwan, cutting off U.S. semiconductor supplies and establishing Chinese hegemony in East Asia. Japan and South Korea would then be forced to choose between either becoming nuclear powers or becoming de facto satrapies of the new Chinese empire. Essentially, Americaโ€™s major allies would fall to Americaโ€™s enemies.

It is indeed, as Noah observes, a very dangerous time.

Front Grunt

Our number one goal right now militarily should be evicting Russia from all of Ukraine (including Crimea) so we don’t have to fight Russia in Poland and the Baltics in ~2030 while China attempts to take Taiwan.

That is going to be the play now that Russia is a vassal state of China. We simply do not have the capability to fight on two fronts like that, even with allies assisting. Yes, I do mean that there should be US and NATO troops in Ukraine fighting alongside Ukrainian forces. And more importantly, combat aircraft and more air defense.

We’ve allowed our enemies the ability to set the stage now. We should short-circuit that while we still can.

Damn, I miss the ’90s.

DPRK

That should be much bigger news. But the press corps is a charred husk of its former self, too concerned with placating and pleasing those in power that it cannot recognize what in former times would be a story worth telling — one that will change the future and is likely to lead to a wider war.