War

CAT Maneuver

Chill Amusing, War

That attacking cat has better tactics than the Russian army:

1) Approaches the enemy from the weakest point.

2) Uses the strongest point of armored vehicle appropriately for shielding.

3) Attacks with decisive force while still relying on vehicle for protection.

4) Leaves vehicle in place for tactical retreat once the enemy proves too much to overmaster.

5) Does not run over self or friendlies (in this case, just self) with the CFV (Cat Fighting Vehicle) in the heat of battle.

From what I’ve seen, the Russian army cannot achieve any of these things consistently. I hope they don’t conscript this cat. They might have more success.

That Light is a Nuke

Chill Politics, Prediction, War

Fuck me, if Trump wins, Ukraine will be crushed and thus there is an 80% chance we will be fighting in Poland by 2032. Same for the South China Sea but that’s like 90%+. Trump absolutely will sell out Ukraine, Taiwan and all our allies.

If Harris wins, there’s still a large chance of the above but it’s more like 30% for Poland and 70% for SCS. Better, but not great.

WWIII, here we come I guess. Fucking hell.

Least Bad

Chill War

If I’d rebooted this blog 3-4 years ago, I would not even have had a “War” category (if it’d had categories then). Now it’s one I post in frequently.

And that’s because war is coming. It’s already here, really. We just don’t acknowledge it yet. Now’s the time to forestall it worsening or if those dogs must be fully unleashed, to make it the least bad possible war.

But mostly, we’re doing nothing. And that pains me.

Wave Byebye

Chill War

I’m not bothered by that much, really, but it’s disturbing to see Russian troops passing the charred and dismembered bodies of their dead comrades, heading into another pointless, doomed meat wave assault where all or nearly all of them will be killed for absolutely nothing.

To Russia, those people aren’t worth even as much as a $500 drone. Something is deeply wrong in the Russian soul. Deeply, deeply wrong.

Knife

Chill Politics, Prediction, War

The free world teeters on the edge of a knife. If Trump is elected, there will be no liberal great powers left in the world.

I agree with Noah Smith here.

Although it’s not possible to know for certain what the consequences of a second Trump presidency would be, it’s very possible that it would result in the U.S. essentially surrendering its European allies to Russia and its Asian allies to China — thus dramatically weakening America’s own ability to resist those enemies in the future.

This is an extremely likely outcome of a Trump victory. And that, therefore, will make WWIII far more likely as well. Either that, or the below — followed by WWIII.

If the U.S. abandons resistance to China and Russia, it will go very badly for America’s allies. Europe will probably fracture again, with some states (probably including Germany) falling all over themselves to appease the Russians. Russia will then become a sort of de facto hegemon in Europe. In Asia, China would probably conquer Taiwan, cutting off U.S. semiconductor supplies and establishing Chinese hegemony in East Asia. Japan and South Korea would then be forced to choose between either becoming nuclear powers or becoming de facto satrapies of the new Chinese empire. Essentially, America’s major allies would fall to America’s enemies.

It is indeed, as Noah observes, a very dangerous time.